MSU & Ole Miss Could Make Up to $70M a Year with New Deal

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Another hectic travel day for me but that doesn’t mean no reading material. I’ve held off from commenting so far on the SEC Network deal because there is so much detail and I didn’t feel like anyone was explaining it fully. Clay Travis wrote an excellent piece on the subject that’s easy to read and makes it crystal clear. MSU and OM are both benefitting greatly from the last deal to the tune of approximately $25 million a year. It’s easy to see the push that money has given the athletic departments. The new deal goes until 2034 and all we can do is guess about the money it will generate at maturity but Travis predicts it could almost triple. Seeing the changes with $25 million a year makes it staggering to think about what we’ll see at $70 million. I suggest reading the whole story by clicking on the highlighted text.

As part of this new deal, I think ESPN has guaranteed the SEC a substantial payment as a floor before the revenue share kicks in on the network. What would that guarantee be? I’m certain it’s more than what any other conference is presently receiving for its television rights. My guess is that the guarantee is around $350 million. So bottom line, I believe that each SEC team is now guaranteed around $25 million a year from ESPN. I believe that the 50/50 split would kick in once we get above that guarantee on the SEC Network in the years to come. If you hit $3 a month on the subscriber fee in the SEC footprint over the next decade, then we’re talking about a billion dollars plus another $333 million in ad sales. That’s $1.333 billion a year in revenue. Take off the $350 million guarantee and the SEC and ESPN would be splitting right at 1 billion. That’s $500 million for each. So we’re talking about $850 million being split among 14 teams in the SEC, that’s nearly $61 million a year per team just from ESPN. As I said earlier, the CBS package will hit the market in 2023/24 and be worth another $250 million a year at least. That would be another ten million for each team. That’s $70 million or more in television money per team in a decade or so. Bottom line? The SEC is poised to make it rain in college athletics.

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MSU QB Position: Where it Stands Right Now

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There is no position MSU fans are watching more than QB. It is currently causing widespread heartburn and praying. As of right now in year 5 of the Mullen era, MSU has 2 scholarship QB’s in Tyler Russell and Dak Prescott. Mullen has seemed to be snakebit in QB recruiting with signees like Dylan Favre and Nick Shuessler leaving the program. Also add in 3 star walk on Jamil Golden who didn’t make his grades and has moved on. Lets take a look where MSU QB currently stands.

Tyler Russell- 5th year senior and incumbent starter. Tyler brings a wealth of experience which includes 4,566 passing yards and 37 TD’s in his career. We know what Tyler brings to the table: big arm, accurate, smart, and leadership. It’s hard to ask for anything more than how Tyler plays and how he represents MSU.

Dak Prescott- 3rd year sophomore who got his first taste of action last year. The 6’2 235 lb battering ram threw for 4 TD’s and ran for another 4 as a freshman. Dak has a big arm and his passing paired with his running ability makes him dangerous. He is currently rehabbing a turf toe surgery but will be 100% by fall. Many MSU fans are very excited about the “Dak Attack” which is right on the horizon.

signee Cord Sandberg- The 4 star prospect stands 6’2 200lbs and look like a Tebow clone who can actually throw the ball. Big arm and athletic. ESPN had him rated as the 246th prospect in America. The latest scuttlebutt on some MSU premium boards is that he is headed to the MLB. I’m approaching it as if he isn’t coming but I’m holding out a sliver of hope.

signee Damian Williams- 6’1 215 lb prospect out of Metairie, La that was a composite 3 star. Passed for 1900 yards and 18 TD’s while adding 874 yards and 10 TD’s on the ground. Looks to be a steal and a very good get from late in the process last year. A true dual threat QB that is set to be on campus in June.

**Wild Card** possible transfer Steven Bench- Currently at Penn State but has announced his leaving. He is a 6’3 206 lb composite 3 star coming out of high school. He’s classified as a pro style QB but dropped a sub 4.6 at MSU camp last summer. He is originally from Cairo, Ga so a move to the south seems likely. He will know where he’s going in early June so he can start school first semester of summer. Bench really liked MSU in the recruiting process last year and appears to like MSU again. As of right now it appears to be an MSU and USF battle. Gotta like MSU’s chances with the depth chart.

Notable SEC OOC Games

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8/29 North Carolina at South Carolina

8/31 Alabama vs Virginia Tech- Atlanta, Georgia

8/31 Mississippi State vs Oklahoma State- Houston, Texas

8/31 Washington State at Auburn

8/31 Georgia at Clemson

8/31 LSU at TCU

9/7 Florida at Miami (fla)

9/14 Tennessee at Oregon

9/14 Ole Miss at Texas

9/14 Southern Miss at Arkansas

9/14 Louisville at Kentucky

9/21 SMU at Texas A&M

9/21 Missouri at Indiana

9/28 South Carolina at Central Florida

11/30 Florida State at Florida

11/30 Georgia at Georgia Tech

11/30 Clemson at South Carolina

11/30 Wake Forrest at Vandy

The SEC has some interesting out of conference match ups this year. Not all of these are high profile games but they were enough to catch my eye. The biggest thing that jumps out is 6 SEC schools have big openers in the first weekend of football. Clemson, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, and North Carolina provide very tough test for their SEC opponents. The next week Florida rekindles their in state matchup with Miami. The following week Ole Miss and Tennessee have tough road trips to Austin and Eugene. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina finish with their traditional rivalries.

All in all its a fun slate that should provide some cool games. With so much of college football based on tv viewership, many of these should draw nice interest. The SEC conference slate is brutal enough but that doesn’t stop everyone from scheduling to prove who the best conference is. I’ve already started my kickoff countdown and I’m patiently waiting week 1 where we will see what a lot of the SEC is made of.

MSU Schedule: Game by Game Confidence Rankings

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vs Oklahoma State 40% – It’s a big game on a neutral field in Houston. A lot of MSU fans say we have no shot. I disagree. I think they will be favored and I give them a slight edge due to offensive firepower.

vs Alcorn 100%- I know you are never supposed to say 100% but I don’t care. You destroy Alcorn at home, no questions asked.

at Auburn 66.6 %- I think MSU will be favored and depending on the OSU game, this can almost be a must win. I think they’ll be ready. Catching Auburn early will be beneficial. I think they will be much improved by midpoint of the season.

vs Troy 99%- Last years scare at Troy should force MSU to take them more seriously this year. At home this game should be no issue.

vs LSU 15%- I love the renewed chorus every year that “this is the year we beat LSU”. The fact is that in my lifetime that I remember football, MSU has beaten them once. I always count LSU as a loss. I gave a %15 chance since its in Starkville.

vs Bowling Green 85%- An interesting OOC matchup for MSU. They play good football in the MAC. Why not some MACtion in Starkville? Should be a pretty easy win.

vs Kentucky 80%- I think the Wildcats will be much improved under Stoops. They will give a tougher game than lately. I really like our chances at home and give us a big edge.

at South Carolina 19%- I’ve got the Gamecocks winning the east and being a BCS bowl type team. I just can’t give the Bulldogs much chance on the road. They are very talented and MSU has traditionally given Spurrier fits so I do t think he’ll take this one lightly.

at Texas A&M 40%- Another game many don’t think MSU has a chance but I think there is a shot. Last years effort against the Aggies was pathetic and I look to give them a run. They’ll be favored and it will be in their house so I give them the edge.

vs Alabama 10%- Bama is Bama and Saban is on a roll. Not much a chance here but if Mullen gets them to play the best game of the year and they play their worst, it’s possible. It’s in Starkville so I gave MSU a 1 in 10 chance.

at Arkansas 75 %- This is my most brash pick to me because MSU doesn’t win at War Memorial Stadium. I think Bielema will have the Hogs much improved but they lack the offensive firepower to compete next year.

vs Ole Miss 70%- After last years shellacking in Oxford, I expect renewed vigor. The facts are that MSU has won 9 of the last 10 in Starkville with the one exception being Eli’s farewell. I’m pretty confident MSU returns the Egg.

Quick Analysis- By the %’s I feel good about 7 wins. Just going off of the numbers though it is a decent possibility to only get 6 of the 7 I feel good about. Now to the games I’m not confident in. I’m basically throwing Bama, LSU, & USC out the window to start. There is a slight possibility but it would be a huge upset. I only gave a slight edge to OSU and A&M. There is a pretty good chance MSU can get one of those. All in all I think MSU’s most probable range is 6-8. I feel really good about 7. I would be surprised with 5 or 9.

What SEC East Players Do You Fear?

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As I did on the 23rd, I will go through all the SEC East teams and pick a player from every team. The premise is to pick a player that strikes fear into your heart. The player that your coordinators will loses sleep trying to come up with a scheme to slow them. Make no mistake that to beat these teams, you must slow these guys.

South Carolina Jadeaveon Clowney- The junior DE is a freak of nature. Whether it’s blowing up Michigan running backs (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/1/1/3825442/jadeveon-clowney-dot-gif ) or just generally striking fear into offensive players, Clowney makes USC go. He terrorized offenses last year racking up 23.5 TFL and 13 sacks on his way to being the most celebrated defensive player in the SEC (Should have been the country but don’t get me started on the Teo fraud). I think Clowney has a legitimate chance at making a Heisman run from the DE position.

Georgia Aaron Murray- The senior QB raised some eyebrows when he decided to return for his senior year with many thinking he was NFL bound. Over his career he has thrown for 10,091 yards and 95 TD’s. Not only that, he’s done it in the best conference in America. Murray is battle tested and knows what it takes to get the job done. He finished just a few yards short of what would have ended up being a national championship when they fell to Bama in the SEC title game. Make that 2 Heisman contenders in the East.

Florida Loucheiz Purifoy- With the loss of Matt Elam, the Gators have a new playmaker to lead the secondary and Purifoy did it all last year. He was 4th on the team in tackles getting 51 from his CB position. The Jr also filled up the stat sheet with 5 PBU, 3 FF, and 2 blocked kicks. In short, Purifoy makes big plays again and again and I expect it to go to the next level this year. Look out for him getting 1rst team All-SEC looks and making it on Sports Center’s top plays.

Vanderbilt Brian Kimbrow- Some may call this a surprise pick but I don’t think you’ll be surprised by seasons end. Last year he was behind star Zack Stacey and still got 66 carries for 413 yards and 3 TD’s. For those counting, that’s a 6.26 average per carry. Vandy will have a new QB and I look for them to lean on the sophomore RB’s elite speed and playmaking ability, particularly early in the schedule. He only had 3 catches last year and I expect that to be much more utilized next year. All Kimbrow needs is a crease and he can take it in for 6. This is one of the guys I’ll be telling you “I told you so” after a few games.

Tennessee AJ Johnson- The junior LB was an absolute tackling machine last year getting 138 total stops and 8.5 TFL. With Butch Jones having to replace a ton of guys on offense it makes it easy to look defense and you can’t look past Johnson. He also registered 1 sack and 8 QB hurries. After another year of training and his teammates around him expecting to perform better, I expect even more from AJ. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see him grab some All-SEC honors at seasons end.

Kentucky Demarco Robinson- This pick is based on a lot of potential and my expectations of what a Stoops offense will bring to the Wildcats. Robinson isn’t the biggest guy at 5’10 160 but he is an outstanding playmaker. Last year he was 2nd on the team with 28 catches with what could be described as a lethargic offense. Stoops will throw much more and utilize his speed guys and playmakers and I expect Robinson to be the main guy to benefit.

Missouri James Franklin- Last year was a down year for the rising senior QB. We saw a significant production decrease from the year before. On his career he has 4,533 yards through the air and 32 Td’s. I’m counting on a rebound year for Franklin. Old OC Daivd Yost is gone so look for new wrinkles and ways to use his talent more efficiently. Last year was a rough year for Missouri as a whole and not just Franklin in their 1rst in the SEC but I expect a much better year out of them led by the James Franklin of 2011 where he threw for 2,872 yards and 21 Td’s and was a dynamic playmaker.

If you missed the SEC West picks https://3rdand57.wordpress.com/2013/04/18/what-sec-west-players-do-you-fear/

Follow me on twitter @BeastManSteve

What SEC West Players Do You Fear?

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The SEC is loaded with playmakers and looking at your weekly opponent usually brings at least 1 individual to mind that worries you. The head coach always gets hit with the question about how to stop “player x”. As fans we often worry that this guy will torch us or we have hope that if we shut them down we can win the game. Even the really elite teams usually have a player that drives them. Lets look at the SEC West and see who my picks are that should keep coordinators up at night.

Alabama TJ Yeldon- As a freshman he ran for 1108 yards and 12 TD’s averaging 6.33 yards a carry. That’s while splitting time with Eddie Lacy who is now departed for the NFL. Yeldon is a natural with the ball in his hands and could be a Heisman darkhorse candidate especially considering recent RB’s from Bama. You can ask LSU fans about how he can change the course of the game.

LSU Jeremy Hill- Another star freshmen RB who was able to rack up 755 yards and 12 TD’s on the ground despite 4 LSU backs getting at least 70 carries. He is so good, 2 of the upperclassmen from last year opted for the NFL draft rather than backing up the young star. Hill is a primed to run through and over SEC defenses again.

Texas A&M Johnny Manziel- The Heisman Trophy winner torched defenses for 3,706 passing yards and threw for 26 TD’s in his coming out party. It has been a long offseason of nightmares for defensive coordinators in the SEC. This year will be an interesting challenge for Manziel as every team will throw the kitchen sink at him to try and slow him down.

Ole Miss Donte Montcrief- Last year Donte was a hungry fellow and was fed the ball to the tune of 66 receptions, 979 yards, and 10 TD’s. Rebel fans expect more production from the WR attributed to another year in Coach Freeze’s system and a better comfort zone. With a viral music video in his honor, I’m sure Donte and The King Kobraz are ready for a remix.

Arkansas Chris Smith- My first defense pick terrorized QB’s from his DE position for 9.5 sacks and 12 QB hurries. He also had 52 total tackles. Smith flirted with the NFL but decided to return to Arkansas for his senior year. He might be the best DE in the SEC not named Clowney.

Auburn Tre Mason- Gus Malzahn will bring the high powered offense but is lacking a proven QB and lost a lot of top end talent on defense. I expect the Tigers to lean heavily on the rising junior RB. Last year he amassed 1002 yards on the ground and 8 TD’s. He only had 7 receptions but I also expect that to go up in Malzahn’s system. He will be the guy you game-plan against for Auburn.

Mississippi State Tyler Russell- Last year was a good one for Russell where he rewrote MSU passing records throwing for 2897 yards and 24 TD’s. The 5th year senior has all the goods to guide MSU. This year he will be breaking in new WR’s so expect opposing defenses to scheme directly at Tyler. Although the Aaron Murray’s and AJ McCarron’s get more media hype, I fully expect Tyler to make his case as 1 of the best senior signal callers in the SEC.

Follow me on twitter @BeastManSteve

MSU Baseball Heating Up

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A 15 run game 3 offensive explosion led MSU to its first SEC sweep of the year at Texas A&M and second straight series victory. The fact that this sweep came on the road makes it even sweeter. MSU’s offense seems to be coming to life led by a huge weekend for Hunter Renfroe where he got his season HR number to 13, which is tied for the SEC lead with Mason Katz (LSU). Not only did our bats come alive but the pitching was stellar as well. MSU only used 5 different pitchers the whole weekend including a complete game effort by Kendall Graveman on Saturday.

I admit that I’m not a baseball genius and I leave the game breakdowns to guys like Todd4State. I do like to look at stats and where we sit as those things give great insight to our season and where are headed.

First off, the SEC West standings:
LSU 13-2,
Arky 9-6
MSU 8-7
Bama 8-7
Om 7-8
A&M 7-8
Aub 5-10

Just looking at that quickly you have to be ok with where State is sitting. If we finfish like we are capable of I think 2nd is our spot and very well could get us the coveted regional host. LSU is on fire and looks almost invincible with their overall record of 34-3. Makes the fact that we outplayed them and lost the series tough, but encouraging at the same time. MSU has a chance to continue the momentum going forward with a series against Auburn on deck for Super Bulldog Weekend. Auburn is struggling right now and another sweep would be huge for the Dawgs.

“Mississippi State’s baseball team is 30-9, the program’s best record through 39 games since 1999.” Mike Nemeth (via twitter @MikeNemeth)

If you want to look ahead, we have a tough trip to Vandy after Auburn. Getting 1 in Nashville is almost a must and if we could figure out how to get that series, my wool growth will be thick. After Vandy we close out with 3 winnable series: Bama, at Ole Miss, and ending with South Carolina at home. There are 2 non-conference games sandwiched in there against Memphis on the 23rd and Oral Roberts on May 14th. The discussion becomes what record is required for us to host? I’m hoping for 11 more conference wins which would get us to 19-11. I’ve read others suggest that 18-12 would do the job as well. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

Another thing that is a solid indicator of what type of season you are having is your team statistics and where you stack up in the league. These numbers are courtesy of Coach34 at EliteDawgs.com . I could have researched this myself but copy and paste was too easy.

Hitting:

Average- 3rd in the SEC
On-base percentage- 3rd in the SEC
Slugging- 4th in the SEC
Runs scored- 3rd in the SEC
RBI’s- 3rd in the SEC
Doubles- 4th in the SEC
HR’s – 3rd in the SEC
Walks-3rd in the SEC
Stolen bases- 4th in the SEC

Pitching:

ERA- 2nd in the SEC
Opp BA- 3rd in the SEC
Strike Outs- Leads SEC
Strike out Looking- Leads SEC
Saves- 2nd in the SEC
fewest Sac bunts allowed- tied for 2nd in the SEC
fewest Sac flies Allowed- tied for SEC lead
fewest hits allowed- 3rd in the SEC

All in all I don’t think anyone can complain about where MSU baseball is right now and the direction we are headed. At the beginning of the year the goal was to host a regional and that is very possible right now. The guys seem to be hitting their stride at just the right time. It will be fun to watch this play out.

Baseball related and worth 5 seconds of your time. Best foul ball catch EVER http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/232323.gif